On Thursday we wrote that Bitcoin's reclaim of $61,000 was a rally on probation because the ETF tape had not confirmed it. The final numbers came in, and they confirm it. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $221.7 million on July 2, per Farside data, snapping a 10-day outflow streak that had drained roughly $2.7 billion. It is the first positive day since May, and the price noticed: Bitcoin traded above $62,400 early on July 4, up about 2 percent on the day, with the whole crypto market adding 2.4 percent to around $2.22 trillion.
A housekeeping note first. Our Thursday piece cited preliminary figures showing continued outflows on July 2. The final Farside print for that session flipped to a solid inflow, so the caution we attached to the price move aged badly within a day. We would rather flag that than quietly move on.
Who actually bought
The inflow was not evenly spread, and the breakdown is the interesting part.
Led the day, largest single-fund intake in over two months.
Second biggest buyer of the session.
Small but positive, alongside minor inflows elsewhere.
Still bleeding. IBIT lost about $3.55 billion in June alone.
That last box is the caveat that keeps this from being a clean all-clear. IBIT is the largest fund in the category, and it kept selling on the very day the group flipped. Reporting around the print made the same point we would: one green day after ten red ones is a statistical anomaly until it repeats, and the repeat needs BlackRock's holders to participate rather than just Fidelity's.
The tape it landed on
The macro backdrop has not changed since Thursday: a June US jobs report at 57,000 jobs added against 115,000 expected, unemployment down to 4.2 percent, and markets reading all of it as pressure against further Fed tightening. What has changed is the sequence of closes.
Ethereum has been the quieter outperformer, up 5.6 percent on July 3 to around $1,730 while Bitcoin added 2.5 percent. Reporting also points at whale accumulation and short squeezes in ETH and SOL doing some of the lifting, which fits a market where positioning got very one-sided through June.
What this means for the drops we track
Our thesis from the half-time report gets a small upgrade. Every confirmed-but-dateless token team, from OpenSea to MetaMask, has been waiting for exactly this: a tape where a debut does not land on a falling knife. Two of the three dials we listed on Thursday have now moved, with flows positive and $60,000 holding. The third, the divergence from tech stocks repeating, gets its next test when US markets reopen after the July 4 holiday. If the flows hold green through next week, we would expect the launch-date chatter to get loud quickly, and the tracker is where we will log it.
