Airdrop ROI calculator
A points program is a bet: you pay now in gas, locked capital and hours, for a payout that may be small or never come. Put your own numbers in and see what has to be true for the bet to break even.
What you expect to receive
What it costs you
How to use it without fooling yourself
The result is only as honest as the inputs. Three of them carry most of the weight: the chance you qualify, the token price you really sell at, and the value you put on your time. Run it twice, once with numbers you hope for and once with numbers you fear, and keep the program only if both runs are acceptable to you.
The calculator uses the figures you type. It makes no forecast of its own, and it ignores things it cannot know, such as vesting schedules that delay your sale. For what projects have actually paid and how they filtered wallets, read how points programs and sybil filters work and the tracker page of the project you have in mind. Taxes differ by country and are not advice here.
The maths: expected payout = tokens × launch price × (1 + sell-price change) × chance of qualifying, less tax on any gain. Total cost = gas + locked capital × annual rate × days ÷ 365 + hours × hourly value. Break-even chance = total cost ÷ the net payout if you do qualify.